How should alternative explanations for payment activity be assessed?¶

Identify realistic alternatives that would materially affect attribution, knowledge or intent, test each against the complete evidence and record why it is accepted, rejected or unresolved.

Start with fact and inference¶

Shared access, compromise, remote control, automation, merchant error, duplicates, refunds and victim manipulation may explain payment records. Cryptocurrency alternatives include custody, address reuse, change, internal transfers and shared wallets. Do not invent unsupported possibilities or treat the first plausible link as conclusive.

Compare explanatory power¶

Test provider access, endpoint, authentication, communications, time, location, normal use and benefit for supporting and contradictory facts. Familiar access may not exclude remote control; a new beneficiary can be added under deception.

State why one account is better supported and preserve genuine uncertainty where evidence cannot distinguish them.